Mon. PM update: Models continue to show a colder, drier solution for our weather heading into this weekend. But, some looks(ensemble members) continue to give us a big snow. This is one of them from the 18Z GFS. This is not a likely solution at this point at all, but still possible.
These types of systems can and do spring surprises right up until when they happen. As of now, expect a very cold weekend with highs in the Tenn. Valley not getting out of the 30’s Saturday, and lows by Sun. AM dropping to the low 20’s, with some upper teens possible in the colder spots of NE Ala and middle Tenn. Anything from a dusting of snow, to something much more significant is still on the table.
Of course, nothing like what is hitting the northeast, but major for us is several inches. Some models continue to be consistent in showing a classic setup for a snow for parts of Mississippi, Tennessee, Alabama, Georgia and the Carolina’s between Friday the 15th and Sunday the 17th. Many of us that follow weather patterns have latched on to this for a solid week now, as the time frame to give us our best chance this season of a significant snowfall in places like the Tennessee Valley.
First, we will get some rain, maybe heavy at times, starting Sunday and ending Monday morning. Anywhere from an inch to three or more inches is possible, mainly south of the Tennessee River. Another wave will bring a little more rain in by later Tuesday and it could change to snow over Tennessee, and maybe even end with a mix over extreme north Alabama, but nothing significant for us expected from that one. It’s just the teaser for what’s to come.
The main period of interest for snow lovers comes Friday into the weekend, depending on which model you believe. The main thing, is both the GFS and European models have been consistent to bring a strong low across the gulf states with cold air rushing in to make most, if not all of the precipitation fall as snow in places like the Tennessee Valley of north Alabama and middle Tennessee. A rain to snow setup could also cause some accumulation in places like Birmingham and Atlanta, or even farther south. This is the 0z run Saturday of the GFS which shows that by midday Saturday the `16th, we could see 6 inches in north Alabama. The timing will vary, and the amounts and exact location as well, but snow lovers should be very hopeful for this one.
And this is the DGEX model, not one of the more reliable ones, but it also has a major snow for us, with huge amounts back in west Tennessee
This is the upper level GFS mean for early next weekend…a low to our southeast..cold air rushing in…perfect setup for us
Temperatures could fall very cold if we get this snow, so that temps even by Monday morning, the 18th could be in the low teens..and zero not far way. This would keep travel problems potentially into the first of the work week, IF a good snowfall occurre.
I hope to update this in coming days, but for now, the setup is in place for us in the Tennessee Valley to have a real snowstorm next weekend. To get frequent updates on weather affecting Alabama and surrounding areas, like this page on facebook:
And if you hear snow forecasted…DO NOT act like this man!